racingtowin.info

Weekending 19th October 08

October 21, 2008 – 6:14 pm

You will have all seen from our previous Betfair accounts and previous results that we do have many many winners and its very neccesary to have these right through the month to make a profit because the prices we take are short ,consequently we can’t have too many losers or it halts our progress.

This week we’ve had many winners but unluckily we had a few horses perform totally out of charcter and a few ill judged rides.  Add a faller and this has stopped us making a significant profit.  What you will notice ‘though is that because we have so many winners our bank is in little danger.  Of course we will have our time during anytime in any month where we make our profit for the whole month.  We only need persistence and patience.  Anyway here’s what happened;-

Monday 13th October

All About You ;- Price Too Short

Tuesday 14th

Emirates Roadshow ;-1.4 Won

Al Marmoom ;- Price Too Short

Absent Pleasure ;- 1.5 Lost.  This one didn’t settle at all in the early stages of the race, giving himself no chance to finish.

Ghaidaa ;- Too Short

Thursday 16th

Roman Glory ;- Too Short

Union Island ;- 1.4 Won

Oscar Rebel ;- 1.55 Lost.  This was very disapointing because she was unbeaten over hurdles before this and ran no such race.

Friday 17th

On Our Way ;- 1.6 Won

Run For The Hills ;- 1.4 Won

Spacious ;- 1.6 Lost , Unlucky 1/2 Length 4th.  This one lost her action 2 Furlongs out and the jockey gave up on her, only to start riding again when it was too late.

Saturday 18th

Rip Van Winkle ;- 1.6 Lost.  A very ill judged ride from Johnny Murtagh.  He must have thought he was sitting on a rocket to have had this one so far back.  I bet if he rode the race again it would definitely be placed.

New Approach ;- 1.35 Won

Door Boy ;- 1.37 Won

Unsung Heroine ;- 1.3 Won

Simondiun ;- 1.4 Lost . Would’ve surely been placed had he had not fallen 2 hurdles from the finish.

Sunday 19th

Four Star General ;- 1.4 Won

Maxwil ;- 1.3 Won

Woolcombe Folly ;- 1.35 Won

Ebasha ;- Too Short

Western Rose ;- Too Short.  We got lucky here because this one fell when travelling really well.  Very rare to have 2 selections fall over hurdles.

Postmaster ;- Too Short , Pity because this would’ve been a comfortable winner for us, but the odds on favourite was taken out leaving our selection to be the favourite.

Timari ;- Too Short.  Pity again this one was quoted at 9/4 in the morning only to be backed off the boards.  Won the race.

Cheers Raj

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Week ending 21 September

September 24, 2008 – 10:48 am

Giving out more selections has really sorted out the problems we encountered at the beginning of the membership.  I really did think by giving limited number of selections on quality horses was the way, but horses being what they are proved me wrong.  I didn’t think I was doing much wrong but the odd loser here and there just wiped out any profit.  Because betting odds on, on limited numbers doesn’t add up.  Anyway as long as we’ve got the solution that’s the main thing - and we now do.

 

Here’s a quick round up of what happened this week.  You’ll see that I’ve included selections down to 1.3 in odds.  Some of you may not have bet these if you are using the original recommendation of a minimum of 1.4.  Please look out for an Email this week where we’ll go into detail with modified recommendatioins for staking in the light of recent experience.

 

Monday 15th September

Houghton 2.8 won

Designated Decoy 1.4won

 
Tuesday 16th

La Adelita 1.45 won

Spring Of Fame  Too Short

 
Wednesday 17th

Jublilee Juggins  1.5 won

Glass Harmonuim Too Short

Barbury Boy  1.5 won

Ra Junior 1.37 won

 
Thursday 18th

Cloudy Start  too Short

Kritzia  1.4 lost

Allied Powers 1.33 won

Duncan 1.3 won

 

 

Friday 19th

Mutidimensional  1.4 won

Anglezake 1.5 lost

 
Sunday 21st

Ogee 1.45 won

Royal Rationale 1.45 won

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Week ending 24th August

August 27, 2008 – 7:30 am

                                       WEEKENDING AUGUST 24th

Friday  22nd

ART CONNOISSEUR ;-

What a start to the week,the bookmakers were making a Maiden winner favourite over our Selection who was a Group winner.  This ensured we got a really decent price on the Place market.  Only to have our boy injured during the race, and the favourite blowing right out.

 
LUSH LASHES ;-

Top Class filly who was very unlucky not to bag her second Group 1 last time, but she never looked like losing right through the race.  1.4 was a very resonable price to finish placed.

 
BONNIE CHARLIE ;-

This one was very unlucky not to win a Group 3 last time out failing by a head.  This was a sales race contested by horses running in much lower class races then what Charlie had run in.  I couldn’t believe 1.5 was on offer.  Maybe because of the large field anyway finished 2nd to his 25/1 stablemate, a bitter pill to swallow for win market backers.

 
EQUIANO ;-

This one looked a stand out on form for a value 9/2 win outright, 2nds to Champion sprinter  Marchand d’Or by a neck back in June followed up with a win at Royal Ascot in a Group 1 over todays race distance.  I couldn’t see how it could finish out of the frame with todays main contenders all well behind.  Looked to lose his action going into the dip and the jockey eased him down, but then started to push him again to finish 4th.  If he had carried on riding 3rd would’ve been easy.  Frustration beyond belief ! 

 
Saturday 23rd
TOP LOCK ;-

This was a 1M 4 F Group 2 race on Good/soft.  I couldn’t understand why Patkai was odds/on after his best run came in a weak Group 3 race over 2M on Fast ground.  Top Lock finished 3rd in the German Derby on Soft ground, form that looked solid enough.  2.24 for 2 places and we came 2nd, favourite 4th.

 
WINKER WATSON ;-

This one has been  racing with Henrythenavigator and Ravens Pass in Group 1 company over a mile.  This was a Listed race over 6F, so looked a standout in the win market.  We achieved 1.7 but he seemed to be out paced for most of the way which its hard to get your head around as he won a Group race last year over 6f, this is when horse racing shows you sods law does exist.

 
BANKABLE ;-

This was easy to solve.  Bankable is a Group horse, there were 2 places, he wasn’t going to beat Ravens Pass and he had to beat up on 2 handicappers for 2nd place which is what he did.  Wish it was always this simple. 1.6 was value.

 
PEACE OFFERING ;-

Its not worth dissecting this but Peace looked to be the winner a furlong out, only to get chinned on the line for 3rd.  Don’t really know what to make of this race considering he was on a three timer.

 
NEW APPROACH ;-

I expected more from this years Derby winner but he was coming back from injury.  If you got 1.4 you were lucky.  It was around 1.36 so if you did it well done.

 
BRAE HILL ;-

Went close in a Class 2 latest and was racing against a few horses that had contested much lessser races.  2 places on offer and we finished 2nd a short head on the line.  1.45 is okay.

 

Sunday 24th
MUTHABARA ;-

Ran in the Group 1 Nassau latest beaten about 2 lengths after leading most of the way, this run showed her to be coming back to top form, dropped in Grade to Group 3 for this race on easier ground which was expected to suit.  I fully expected her to win.  Evens was the price and she totally blew out, obviously we know horses do this but after what we’ve had this week we didn’t need this.

 
CRYSTAL CAPELLA ;-

A fast improving filly placed decently by master trainer.  No more to be said.  1.66 was the price and she won.

 
NAFAATH ;-

This one had strong maiden form and 2 of his dangers were making their debuts so looked a solid bet at the prices.  1.45 was very fair.  Finished 3rd a head and a head the winning distance.  So If Muthabara hadn’t blown it we actually would’ve made a profit on the week  What a killer.

 

We have been  unlucky beyond belief not to have gone clear this week.  Lets hope the cards fall on our side this week.  Its a matter of time before we start to go clear now.

Cheers Raj

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Week ending 17 August ‘08

August 20, 2008 – 9:40 am

A decent week so far as the performance’s of the selections we were 100% and this is really the kind of thing i expect.  I can’t believe the weather we’re having in the middle of August and I can’t recall an Abandonment at this York meeting we’re suppose to be enjoying.  It really is halting our progress, but how long can it last?suppose I shouldn’t tempt fate.  Anyway here’s a roundup to how the week went;-

 
Monday  11th

MIZEN RAVEN

Who would think that if we had a single selection at Southwell that it would become the centre attraction for a wholesale gamble.  Well that’s what happened in this case, backed from 15/8 to 4/5 there was not a lot of 1.4 about and when the price came in that was the end of it.   So good luck to those who got on, but I won’t count it.  It won easily enough.

Wednesday 13th

KATIYRA

This was exactly the same scenario to when we backed China White last Friday.  Katiyra finished one place behind China in the Irish Oaks and for this race she was dropped three grades to Listed, same distance etc..  So really was a penalty kick and won by miles, as should have China White last week - something amiss.  We got 1.46. 

Thursday 14th

FLORENTIA

Had contested a better Class Maiden at Sandown a week ago and she ran as if that run would do her a whole lot of good.It did just that but had to settle for 2nd to a horse that might not be to bad.1.55 for this one.

Saturday 16th

SIXTIES ICON

A very good Group 2 horse in top form was dropped into a weak Group 3.  I was checking the teletext for the declarations on Friday night and the forecast price was 3/1.  I thought “no chance - more like 11/8″.  Anyway it was 3/1 in the morning and smacked off the boards into 13/8.   At least we got on at 1.6 and won the race.

ZUZU

This one has been solidly backed each time she has run and is very well regarded. 
2 Places up for grabs and we got our 1.4.   Led all the way and bolted in.

 
Sunday 17th

 

Georgebernardshaw

It was all about the ground for this one and the sprinters in Ireland are a sorry bunch so George was attempting to be the new kid on the block on his favoured surface.  Well it was a funny ride and I think he should have won but was beaten a by a head.  I don’t think he is going to be the next sprinting sensestion.  This one was smacked as well so if you got on at 1.4 well done .

 
RARE RANSOM

This particlar trainer seems to place his better horses in the same races every season.  By that I mean they follow a similar path, and here we had one.  She won her Galway Maiden by 7 lengths from a Group placed filly so the form was solid.  Even though she finished a clear 3rd here I really do think she’s better than this and better going conditions will show this in time.  Plenty of 1.5.

 

Well there we have it.  After our first good weekend we’ve had circumstances against us which has not been anyones fault, but could have done without that sort of thing because this is such a new venture.  But we will go on from here.  Whenever the weather gives us a chance.

Raj

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Roundup to 10th August

August 12, 2008 – 12:06 pm

There’s been alot of rain around lately making life alittle difficult.  Handicaps were the order of the day at Ascot on Saturday beacause it was Shergar Cup day, so that card was out.

Anyway here’s how it went;-

Oh i forgot to include Darjina who won for us at 1.5 last Sunday

 

Friday 8th

CHINESE WHITE;-

This one had finished a close 4th in the Irish Oak last time out in a Group 1 race.  This was a Group 3 race run over the same distance.  I thought she would win as she liked, but there was something terribly wrong with her and she just didn’t perform.

 
Saturday 9th

MULTIDIMENTIONAL ;-

This looked a penalty kick, dropping down in Grade and going, distance etc. - ideal.  We got a decent price 1.8 because there were only 2 Places availiable.  Prominent most of the way took it up 2 out and won well.

 
Sunday 10th

COMBAT ZONE ;-

Had contested the famous Strutt & Parker Maiden and that always throws up plenty of winners.  Finished 2nd last time out at Sandown that looked a decent race.

1.7 was the price and after not settling at all in the race did finish 3rd.

US RANGER ;-

I was going to select Marchand d’ Or for this race, but I wasn’t sure if we’d get on at 1.4 because the French markets can be weak sometimes.  Anyway last time out Marchand and US Ranger contested the July Cup there was a short head between them at the line.  So I decided to go for US Ranger who was a clear 2nd in the betting.  Make’s me sick because 1.4 was availiable and Marchand won and US didn’t run upto form and finished 5th.

RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH ;-

This one had run really well last time in a Group 2 race.   This was a Class 3 race so had to be thereabouts.  We were able to get 1.6 because there were only 2 Places.
After a couple of weeks where circumstances have gone against us this week really should’ve been a clean winner, I intend to give out a few more selections from now on and start to get this thing rolling.

Cheers Raj

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Weekly roundup to Aug 3rd

August 6, 2008 – 9:25 am

It’s been a little frustrating of late because last week we had 7 out of 7 win but couldn’t quite get on all of them because they were so were so well backed on the Win market.  As I’ve explained before, this causes shortening of price on the Place market too.  It’s ironic because we’ve been looking forward to Goodwood for a couple of weeks and a few of our selections failed to handle the contours of the track.  Something that I regret I didn’t take into account because I cleaned up at that meeting last year.

Anyway here’s how it went for the week:

Tuesday 24th

SPIN CYCLE ;-

The form of this one was solid.   After just been touched in a Group 2 last time Spin Cycle was stepping down in Grade here.  Looked a good thing and plenty of 1.9 on offer.  The problem was he never looked happy on the track and never really got there, but he is definetly better than this.

Its funny because Prolific finished behind him last time and Prolific went on to win the Richmond on Friday at Goodwood of course.
MAGALING ;-

After finishing 2nd on his debut to a horse that had gone onto frank the form, again this one was rolling all around the track and wouldn’t just get on with it.  Look out for him next time.

 

Wednesday 30th

RAVENS PAST;-

This ones been knocking on the door in Group 1’s of late and his nemisis denied him once again.  Would’ve won in another stride, but we were comfortably placed.1.8 for this one.
WE’LL COME ;-

Has been placed so many times in much better races than this one and ended up being a very clear 3rd.  1.6 for this one.
Thursday 31st
DANDY MAN ;- This horse has been placed in so many Group 1 sprints that I thought he was an outright banker for this.  Again a 3rd placing and just goes to show how hard picking winners outright really is.  1.5 for this one.  Started off at about 1.8 but smashed in the win market from 11/4-7/4.
HONOLULU ;-

This was a total sickener because I couldn’t see how this could not be placed.   Like most of O’Briens horses seemed to be improving with each run in Group company and was basically taking on Handicappers apart from his stable mate Yeats.  I actually laughed when i got 1.56 on my bet and felt clever.  Well the laugh was on us because the horse just didn’t handle the track or was sick and never got involved.

 

Saturday 2nd August
PERFECT STRIDE ;-

Stoute thought this was his 2000 Guineas horse, but got worked up before that race and ran below expectation’s, but last week bolted up in a big Handicap.

Stoute rarely runs his horses without giving them time before each race so it was noteworthy that he entered him for this race which was only Listed  class.  Sadly the horse just didn’t fire and this race may have come too soon.
HALFWAY TO HEAVEN ;-

Looks to be a typical improver for O’Brien had won the 1000 Gunieas on her latest run and built on it here winning this Group 1 race under a magnificent ride.  We got evens for this one.
TAJDEEF ;- Has been placed so many times in better grade of race and it was the same story here where he finished 3rd.  1.4 was the price.
THEORY ;- I have to admit this was low grade stuff and really should’ve side stepped it.  After looking guaranteed to win a furlong out somehow got chinned on the line for a Place.
HOLYROOD ;- This one had finished a close up 4th in the famous Strutt and Parker Maiden last time out.  The race was working out well producing it’s usual share of winners so this one really should’ve been atleast Placed.  Again we’re hit with the same scenario because the horses just couldn’t handle the track and was struggling a long way out.  Most probably win next time out.

 

DIJEER ;- Had been placed in much better races than this in Dubai and because there were only 2 Places we were able to get on at 1.6.  Won well in the end.
We didn’t get the rub of the green this week with so many selections not handling the track mainly 2 year olds.  We’ll be back with a bang so do not worry.
  

Hope you’re enjoying the new book.

 

 Cheers Raj

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Roundup week ending Sun 27 July ‘08

July 28, 2008 – 9:36 pm

Weekending July 27th 08

We played the week with patience, not getting involved with the usual dross of racing at the beginning of the week and waiting for the good stuff which started on Thursday at Sandown Park.  And what happened?   We were hit with horses withdrawn because of the fast ground and in some other races our selections get backed off the boards in the Win market.  So that effectively kills off the price in the Place market. 

Let me again remind you, our members have no effect on the odds in the Place market at all.  It is the Win market that governs the price.

All our selections were 100% winners this week and we should have won handsomely.   We did win but not in the way we should have.

Anyway, although I don’t have a crystal ball I fully expect that to change this week because we have 5 days of Glorious Goodwood and we’ll take the fight to the layers arm in arm. 

Here’s what happened this week;-

Thursday 24th July

HONEST QUALITY

This one was trading just under 2/1 in the morning and 1.4 for a place was availiable at that time.   I checked and I really expected to get atleast 1.5 when the market got stronger, but right throughout the day the backers on the Win market hammered our selection and by the race time we couldn’t get on at 1.4

I did back the selection myself at 1.38 for £300, but I can’t count this as a winer.  Good luck to the ones that got on !   You could see about half way through the race your money was safe.  Won well in the end at 6/4 to win.

 

Saturday 26th July

PIPEDREAMER

3 non runners taken out during the morning stuffed things up for us here.   I really thought the only way this one couldn’t be placed was if you went to the track and shot it with a double barrel.  1.33 was availiable and if I had known of the withdrawls I would have selected Campanoligist which was 1.45.  When you get the book this race was a perfect example of when to hit the layers.   You really couldn’t lose.  Again if you got on good luck but I won’t count it.  The horse bolted up for a straight win at 9/4.

 

CAPTAIN ELLIS

Some of the same rubbish as the 2nd favourite is withdrawn after I’ve given the selections out and from being odd’s against it’s odds on in the win market.  So again we can’t get on.  There were 2 Places up for grabs and after being matched at 1/10 and less for a win in the last furlong got nailed on the line, but we would have been paid.

YOUMZAIN

At last a winner.  Approx 1.53 and after a crap ride from Hughes we got 3rd and finally got paid out.  Thank you God what does a man have to do to earn some cash around here?

Sunday 27th July

ART CONNOISSEUR

There was again a non runner and then strong support for our selection throughout the morning which was depressing to witness.  They normally favour Aiedan o’Brien’s horses in Ireland and I was counting on that fact.  Anyway 1.34 was what you could have got and he was a comfortable 2nd, but again I won’t count it as a winner.  Good luck if you were on.

 
BASQUE BEAUTY

I bet you’re thinking let’s whack these in the win market by now, but really do stick with the original plan.  When you read the Introduction to the book it will all make sense.  For an Ascot maiden this looked like something that would be contested up North somewhere. 

As you know I don’t really want to be selecting in low grade affairs to paying Members but there were special circumstanes here.  This filly is going places in the future and if she hadn’t won like she did there would’ve been quite a few upset people.  Anyway a nice winner at about 1.6.

Of course I expect a better return than this on a weeks betting, but there have been extenuating circumstances this week.  What I do like is that we haven’t looked like losing money since we started a fortnight ago.
 

Lets sort out the wages this week!

This is not a service that’s going to give out lots of selections hoping that a few pricey winners will make the difference.  

The week to come should be very interesting.

Cheers Raj

 

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Week ending July 20 2008

July 20, 2008 – 10:20 pm

Hi to all Club Members,
                                 

This last week we’ve had to put up with some of the worst grade of racing I’ve seen in a while.

Saturday, as you know, is a day I would look forward to with the better racecourses on show but the cards had a tricky look to them with the market leaders in the main races stepping up in Class or Distance.

On Sundays I usually expect some decent races from Ireland but it wasn’t the case today.  England has put on 2 Summer Jumps meetings so that’s a no no too.

The weather during the mid week hasn’t helped either.  We’re in mid July and it felt like Autumn time.  Anyway that’s enough moaning and here’s a roundup of the last week.

 
Wednesday 16th

CHINTZ

This was a winner for us, but I won’t count it because only a handful of members got the 1.4 before it was backed off the boards in the Win market.

You must have realised by now the betting on the Win market controls the Place market.  The effect of our members is just a small drop in the ocean.

 

PEPPERTREE LANE

The average odds for this one was approx 1.45.  Peppertree hit the front 2 furlongs from home but couldn’t quite last it out and finished a comfortable 3rd with a 2 1/2 length gap to the 4th placed horse.

 

Friday 18th

 
NOBLE JACK
This was the first time I ventured out of Class 1 races since we started the Club and we met with our first loser.  I would like to share my thoughts on this with you because it’s very important you understand where I’m coming from.

When you get the new book which will teach you exactly how I choose the selections you will see that I chose this selection in the same way.

This race was a Class 4 Maiden race.  Now these horses are obviously new to the game and the form isn’t the strongest most of the time, but a profit can be made over time betting in this type of race.

Noble Jack had raced twice before, both at Grade 1 tracks and finished 2nd both times with the horses surrounding him having gone on to frank the form.  For this race he was a close 2nd Favourite with a gap to the other contenders.

This is usually more than enough to be placed.  But with young horses they sometimes don’t show the same level of form or get found out by different conditions on the day.

Call me stupid but after selecting 6 winners I still felt like I wanted to do more.  The lesson is learned very early and I won’t be bothering to go to that place again.

The horse ran a stinker and only God knows why.

FATEH FIELD
The winner of this race Easy Target finished behind Fateh Field on the 30th May, that day beaten 2 1/2 lengths.  Fateh was 3/1 that day and Easy was 33/1.

It was a weird race with the odds on fav not showin his form for this race also.

The only thing I can think is that the going description of Good, Good/Firm places wasn’t accurate because there had been a lot of rain around.

Both Noble Jack and Fateh Field raced at the same track and ran stinkers.

 

PEACE OFFERING
This was a Class 3 but Peace Offering is a Class 1 horse so a perfect hit.

Strong support on the Win market late on.  Well done to those that got 1.5, but I’ll count this one at 1.4.  Made all the running and won comfortably.

 

ROYAL DESTINATION
Another bet in a Maiden and ran as if doped, but we were saved because he was way too short in price for us.  If you’re following the rules then you will have left this one alone.

 

Saturday 19th

 
DAR RE MI
A Class 1 race and we’re back in business now.

I noticed in the morning that some members are still trying to get on early and all that does is squash the price down.   You are just out doing yourselves and I hope you’ve realised by now.  Please monitor the market 5-10 minutes before the race or just phone it in 5 minutes before the race.

If the horse is drifting in the win market just wait and you’ll get higher odds on the Place.

Anyway plenty of 1.5 here and we never looked in any danger of not collecting because she won well and I thought she had outstanding credentials.

 

I’m disappointed with myself for getting stuck with those 2 average horses on Friday, otherwise all would have been well for a bad week’s racing.

 

I’m going to give out selections to achieve a high strike rate so don’t be disappointed there are not bets every day.  We’ve got the King George meeting stating at the end of the week and then after that we’re really in business because from the following Tuesday we have 5 days of Glorious Goodwood.  I fully expect to clean up there.

Cheers Raj

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Roundup, 13 July

July 14, 2008 – 11:58 am

Hi to all Club Members.

We’ve only had 2 days of betting since our new service started and here’s a quick roundup of what happened;-

Saturday 12th ;-  2 bets, 2 wins

BORDERLESCOTT ;- Plenty of liquidity on the market once the real betting started and 1.6 was easily getable.  I thought this would win before the race and after hitting 1.01 in the final furlong to do just that he got chinned on the line.

Would’ve felt sick as a dog if we were on the win market.  So the very first bet tells us this is the way forward. 

AL QASI ;- 1.5 was the approx price for this one.  It shortened as they went in the stalls because there was solid support in the win market.  Al Qasi ran on well to hold a comfortable looking 2nd place.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday 13th ;-  2 bets, 2 wins

RAVENS PASS ;- The French markets can be a little weak sometimes but once the real betting opened the money came and 1.45 was the approx price for this one.  At one point this one was way back in the field but ran on very strongly to finish a comfortable 2nd.

I think if the jockey could ride it again he might have had had him closer up and should’ve won the race. Again it just went to show why straight bets are a hard business.

 
MOONSTONE ;- Plenty of 1.6 availiable here.  The trainer had 6 runners in this race.  Moonstone was the 5/2 fav.  A 66/1 shot had raced into a clear lead with a furlong to go and Moonstone came with a strong run but as they went past the line you couldn’t tell if he’d got up the 66/1 shot happened to be a stablemate and his backers in the win market would’ve been caching it.  In the end he just got up.

 We couldn’t have asked for a better start.  It was exactly what I was looking for.   100% with 4 out of 4 and a profit of approx 2.15 points.

RAJ

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